Perbandingan Pendekatan Metode Peramalan Naive Approach, Simple Moving Average dan Weighted Moving Average dalam Upaya Meningkatkan Prediksi Penjualan JNE Kopma UNY

Authors

  • Nanda Cahya Wulan Departemen Pendidikan Ekonomi, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Universitas Negeri Yogyakarta
  • Lilia Pasca Riani Departemen Pendidikan Ekonomi, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Universitas Negeri Yogyakarta

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30737/jatiunik.v7i2.5495

Keywords:

Effectiveness, Forecasting, JNE UNY, Sales prediction

Abstract

JNE Kopma UNY's logistics demand increases 2% per week, the manual courier allocation system is unable to keep up, predictions are accurate and real-time is needed. However, there is no exact accuracy for this case. The study was conducted to determine the accuracy of the smallest Mean Percentage Error (MPE) at JNE Kopma UNY by observing sales data for 2022 to predict demand. The data was analyzed using the Naive Approach, SMA and WMA methods, then measured using the MPE to determine the best forecasting method. The software used is Microsoft Excel 2016. The 3 Month (SMA) produces the highest sales prediction (Rp. 38,668,850) for January 2023 compared to Naive Approach (Rp. 35,086,330) and 3 Month WMA (Rp. 37,993,380). 3 Month SMA is proven to be superior with the lowest MPE (12.07%) and consistent performance. Naive Approach is inaccurate (MPE 20.26%) and 3 Month WMA performance is unstable (MPE 14.27%). This research recommends 3 Month SMA for JNE Kopma UNY to increase the accuracy of sales predictions and optimize stock. Opportunities for further research are open regarding the application of 3 Month SMA in various contexts.

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2024-04-29

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Cahya Wulan, N., & Pasca Riani, L. (2024). Perbandingan Pendekatan Metode Peramalan Naive Approach, Simple Moving Average dan Weighted Moving Average dalam Upaya Meningkatkan Prediksi Penjualan JNE Kopma UNY. JATI UNIK : Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Dan Manajemen Industri, 7(2). https://doi.org/10.30737/jatiunik.v7i2.5495

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Vol. 7 No. 2 (2024): April

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