Penerapan Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) dalam Perhitungan Jumlah Permintaan Air Mineral Pada PT. Akasha Wira International

Authors

  • Lolyka Dewi Indrasari Program Studi Teknik Industri, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Kadiri.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30737/jatiunik.v3i2.842

Keywords:

Calculation Of The number Of Requests, Mean Absolute Deviation, Single Exponential Smoothing Shortneck

Abstract

Daily needs that are priceless but useful for health one of which is mineral water. The need for mineral water increases with the high demand in the market. The purpose of this study was to determine the forecasting of the number of requests for 330 ml shortneck mineral water products in the future using the Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) method. Limitation of the problem is discussing the number of requests in the first half of 2020, the data used were obtained from PT. Akasha Wira International from January 2014 to December 2019. The analytical method is to calculate the forecast error value of the different 𛼠values to find one value that produces the smallest error with the calculation method Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) can interpreted based on the calculation stage where the forecast data value in the period 𑡠+ 1 is the actual value in the period t plus the adjustment derived from forecasting error that occurred in the period t. The results obtained on the value of Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) are taken at a = 0.9 because it produces the smallest value of the projected data projection error of 1860 units. Whereas in forecasting requests using Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), 330 ml shortneck mineral water in the first half of 2020 amounted to 2177634 units.

 

Kebutuhan sehari – hari yang tidak ternilai harganya tapi berguna bagi kesehatan salah satunya adalah air mineral. Kebutuhan air mineral meningkat seiring dengan tingginya permintaan pada pasar. Tujuan penelitian ini, yaitu untuk mengetahui peramalan jumlah permintaan pada produk air mineral 330 ml shortneck dimasa mendatang menggunakan metode Single Exponential Smoothing (SES). Batasan masalah yaitu membahas jumlah permintaan dimasa mendatang semester I 2020, data yang digunakan diperoleh dari PT. Akasha Wira International pada Januari 2014 sampai dengan Desember 2019. Metode analisis yaitu Menghitung nilai kesalahan peramalan terhadap nilai 𛼠yang berbeda beda untuk menemukan satu nilai 𛼠yang menghasilkan kesalahan terkecil dengan metode perhitungan Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) dan Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) dapat diartikan berdasarkan tahapan perhitungannya dimana nilai data ramalan pada periode 𑡠+ 1 merupakan nilai actual pada periode t ditambah dengan penyesuaian yang berasal dari kesalahan nilai peramalan yang terjadi pada periode t. Didapatkan hasil pada nilai Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) diambil pada a = 0,9 karena menghasilkan nilai kesalahan proyeksi data pemrintaan paling kecil yaitu 1860 unit. Sedangkan pada peramalan permintaan menggunakan Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), air mineral 330 ml shortneck pada semester I tahun 2020 sebesar 2177634 unit. 

 

 


References

Rayadi, “Persediaan Barang Dagang Pada Perusahaan Air Minum Mineral di Kota Pontianak,†Integr. Manuf. Syst., vol. 6, pp. 1–10, 2016.

Fitriadi, “Optimasi Sistem Persediaan Produk Akhir Air Minum Dalam Kemasan (Amdk) Dengan Menggunakan Konsep Lean Manufacturing,†J. Optim., vol. 3, no. 4, pp. 39–47, 2018.

Amri, Trisna, and E. N. Harahap, “Perencanaan Pengendalian Produksi Air Minum Dalam Kemasan Menggunakan Metode Aggregate Planning,†Malikussaleh Ind. Eng. J., vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 11–18, 2012.

A. D. Rahajoe, “Forecasting feature selection based on single exponential smoothing using Wrapper method,†Int. J. Adv. Comput. Sci. Appl., vol. 10, no. 6, pp. 139–145, 2019.

S. D. Prestwich, S. A. Tarim, R. Rossi, and B. Hnich, “Forecasting intermittent demand by hyperbolic-exponential smoothing,†Int. J. Forecast., vol. 30, no. 4, pp. 928–933, 2014.

R. Y. Hayuningtyas, “Peramalan Persediaan Barang Menggunakan Metode Weighted Moving Average dan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing,†None, vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 217–222, 2017.

B. Putro, M. T. Furqon, and S. H. Wijoyo, “Prediksi Jumlah Kebutuhan Pemakaian Air Menggunakan Metode Exponential Smoothing ( Studi Kasus : PDAM Kota Malang ),†J. Pengemb. Teknol. Inf. dan Ilmu Komput. Univ. Brawijaya, vol. 2, no. 11, pp. 4679–4686, 2018.

F. Sidqi and I. D. Sumitra, “Forecasting Product Selling Using Single Exponential Smoothing and Double Exponential Smoothing Methods,†IOP Conf. Ser. Mater. Sci. Eng., vol. 662, no. 3, 2019.

O. Rimpi, “Peramalan Produksi Ikan Laut di Kabupaten Pesisir Selatan Menggunakan Metode Pemulusan Eksponensial Tripel Tipe Brown,†Student Math. Dep., pp. 59–63, 2014.

V. Ryanka Sutrisno, “Analisis Forecasting untuk Data Penjualan Menggunakan Metode Simple Moving Average dan Single Exponential Smoothing: Studi Kasus PT Guna Kemas Indah,†2013.

D. Diniaty and Agusrinal, “Perancangan Strategi Pemasaran pada Produk Anyaman Pandan ( Studi Kasus : Home Industry Saiyo Sakato Di Kenagarian Padang Laweh Kecamatan Koto Vii Kabupaten Sawahlunto Sijunjung ),†J. Sains, Teknol. dan Ind., vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 175–184, 2014.

D. M. Khairina, A. Muaddam, S. Maharani, and H. Rahmania, “Forecasting of Groundwater Tax Revenue Using Single Exponential Smoothing Method,†E3S Web Conf., vol. 125, no. 201 9, pp. 1–5, 2019.

C. L. Karmaker, “Determination of Optimum Smoothing Constant of Single Exponential Smoothing Model: A Case Study,†Int. J. Res. Ind. Eng., vol. 6, no. 3, pp. 184–192, 2017.

A. Hartono, “Perbandingan Metode single Exponential Smoothing Dan Metode Exponential Smoothing Adjusted For Trend (Holt’s Method) Untuk Meramalkan Penjualan. Studi Kasus: Toko Onderdil Mobil ‘Prodi, Purwodadi,’†J. EKSIS, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 8–18, 2012.

J. Segers, “On the asymptotic distribution of the mean absolute deviation about the mean,†no. February, 2014.

U. Khair, H. Fahmi, S. Al Hakim, and R. Rahim, “Forecasting Error Calculation with Mean Absolute Deviation and Mean Absolute Percentage Error,†in Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 2017.

M. P. Dr. Whidmurni, “Penelitian Kuantitatif,†Pemaparan Metod. Kuantitatif, 2017.

P. D. Sugiyono, metode penelitian kuantitatif, kualitatif,dan R&D. 2016.

Ali Maksum, “Data, Teknik Pengumpulan Data dan Instrumen Penelitian,†J. Cakrawala Kependidikan, no. agustus, p. 107, 2012.

Sugiyono, “Teknik Pengumpulan Data,†Metod. Penelit. Kuantitatif, Kualitatif dan R&D, p. 137, 2014.

Downloads

PlumX Metrics

Published

2020-05-04

How to Cite

Indrasari, L. D. (2020). Penerapan Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) dalam Perhitungan Jumlah Permintaan Air Mineral Pada PT. Akasha Wira International. JATI UNIK : Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Dan Manajemen Industri, 3(2), 104–116. https://doi.org/10.30737/jatiunik.v3i2.842

Issue

Vol. 3 No. 2 (2020): April

Section

Articles

License

Information regarding Copyright and Licensing at JATI UNIK as follows:

  1. Licensed Use of Non - Commercial Articles will be governed by the Creative Commons Attribution license, which is featured on the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial Share A Like 4.0 International License.
  2. The author guarantees that the articles published through JATI UNIK are original and do not contain statements that violate the law do not violate others' rights are subject to copyright, which is held exclusively by the author and free from the rights of third parties. The author is allowed to quote from various sources used for research and not to harm any party.
  3. JATI UNIK disseminates articles published with the rules set by Creative Commons. UNIK JATI license allows users to copy, distribute, display, and work for non-commercial purposes. Users also need to connect authors and JATI UNIK with the distribution of articles in journals.
  4. The Author rights, namely copyrights, ownership rights, patents, rights to use the substance of articles in the future, rights to reproduce articles for personal purposes and not to be traded, rights to conduct personal archives, rights to contract used for the non-exclusive distribution of articles published in the form a book and acknowledge the initial publication of the article originating from JATI UNIK.
  5. Suppose articles published by the author through JATI UNIK are compiled with other authors. In that case, it is necessary to create a form containing the authority of all authors involved in the article's production by including the agreement agreed upon by all authors in the article.
  6. The next point is, the agreement can be terminated if the author or JATI UNIK violates the agreement and cannot make repairs to the customer within a maximum of 2 months after being given information asking for the violation to be corrected. If there is no violation of the agreement, the license will automatically terminate and affect UNIQUE JATI UNIK.
  7. Regarding royalties, so far, if it is following applicable legal regulations, the author will waive his right to collect royalties on articles that have been licensed by JATI UNIK.
  8. In publishing the article, the editorial process is successful. JATI UNIK will continue it. JATI UNIK has the right to adjust articles related to punctuation, spelling, capital letters, references used, and usage adapted to JATI UNIK. The author acknowledges that the article can be published and accessed free of charge by the public.